This is a dual-column presented by The Collegian, with columnists Thomas Hegarty and Claire Houchin. This article will present two depictions of the Presidential Primary.
Is Trump Unbeatable?
By Claire Houchin
The Republican Presidential Primary is turning out to be a chaotic mess.
Trump is essentially the incumbent, and is maintaining an average of 52% in the polls, while managing four indictments.
For any of the other contenders to beat the former President, they will have to somehow balance the support of the pro-Trump wing and the so-called “never-Trumpers” that make up the Republican primary electorate. That is a tough battle for the other 13 candidates in the race.
Eight of the 13 candidates appeared in the first debate on Aug. 23. Only the top eight candidates in the polls were allowed to debate.
Trump decided not to attend.
His failure to appear allowed Doug Burgum, Governor of North Dakota, to make the debate stage. Despite this privilege, his performance was underwhelming.
The other seven were Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, Vivek Ramaswamy, businessman and author, Mike Pence, former vice president, Nikki Haley, former governor of South Carolina, Chris Christie, former governor of New Jersey, Tim Scott, South Carolina senator, and Asa Hutchinson, former governor of Arkansas.
The other five candidates have chosen to stay in the race despite the fact they did not reach the poll requirements to participate in the debate, with the exception of Mayor Frances Suarez who dropped out of the race having not made the debate stage.
There was not a clear winner of the debate. Most polls reported it was likely that the average voter had the same preferred candidate after the debate that they did before. On the other hand, national polling data shows clear winners in terms of support success.
Trump dropped 6% in polls post-debate likely due to his failure to appear. DeSantis jumped 2% in the polls. During the debate, he had a strong performance, but did not stand out. Ramaswamy dropped 1% in the polls. He came off as annoying and spent most of the time praising former President Trump.
This explains his small drop as most republican primary voters are supportive of the President. Pence and Haley had the largest jumps in poll numbers, both gaining 5 percentage points. Both Haley and Pence had strong rebuttals and provided clear answers to the questions. The next debate will be held on Sept. 27.
Trump appeared in an interview with former Fox News host, Tucker Carlson on X, formally known as Twitter, released on debate night instead of attending the debate. The interview got 265 million views compared to the debate hitting 12.8 million views on Fox News, according to PBS.
Tucker, who was fired from Fox News earlier this year, has continued his show on Elon Musk’s free speech safe haven X.
While he was on Fox News, his show had a significant impact on the voter base, but now he is reaching a larger audience than ever. It will be interesting to see how his new presence on social media will impact the primary. As for his interview with Trump, Carlson did not seem to give the President any difficult questions.
The interview was entertaining, but how could it not be with Trump. Many viewers were expecting Carlson to have hard– hitting questions for him, but it was more of a casual conversation between old friends than an interview.
The first elections are the Iowa Caucuses with the date set for Jan. 15, 2024. These elections are a large predictor for how the rest of the race will shake out. In 2016, the race began with 17 candidates, but by March all but three candidates had left the race.
There are three elections after Iowa and before March where most of the drop off will take place. Those elections are Nevada, South Carolina, and Michigan. If any candidate is going to have a chance at beating Trump, they are going to have to win one of these elections.
This chaotic primary season will continue to serve us twists and turns. Will Trump hold his lead and take the nomination, or will one of the other candidates unlock the secret to beating Trump? Only time will tell, but at least it’s fun to watch along the way.
Republicans are scrambling to find 2024 candidate
By Thomas Hegarty
The 2024 election will be unique for a number of reasons.
On the Democratic side, the lack of any real primary is frustrating. Each election should serve as a re-evaluation not just of the power the respective parties will hold, but also who gets to represent those parties.
On the Republican side, the lead held by former president Donald Trump is abnormal, as he is currently facing 91 felony charges.
The Republican front-runner being an indicted man whose eligibility to run is in question poses an interesting problem for the party.
If the cases against Trump render him ineligible to run before the election takes place, then the party is left scrambling to build momentum behind a new candidate to run against an incumbent with a relatively good economy behind him.
This is probably why parts of the Republican establishment have been trying to shift support to a new candidate.
Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, was that person for a time, as many saw him as a more agreeable and professional representation of President Trump’s policies.
However, this image of DeSantis as the “electable” Trump has faded since his re-election as Florida’s governor. His increasingly extreme rhetoric and legal action against companies that espouse progressive views has turned him into an imitation of Trump without the sense of humor and bombastic charisma that won Republicans the White House in 2016.
Vivek Ramaswamy is behind him, and his youth and cocky attitude have garnered him a devoted fan-base. That same attitude, however, has soured him to the median voter. He is trying to play the same “outsider” angle that Trump played, but he lacks the pathos to make people see him as anything other than a huckster.
Nikki Haley, former U.N. ambassador, is the only candidate who I believe could definitively beat Biden in the general election, and she has been gaining ground on Ramaswamy and DeSantis.
Her platform is moderate in a way that could recapture the suburbs as a Republican stronghold. This growth, however, seems to have a low ceiling, as Trumps support has not budged in any meaningful way. Beneath Haley lie Pence, Christie, and a couple other candidates who are not statistically relevant.
Pence appears to be running mainly to preserve his legacy, and Christie is running as the anti-Trump candidate. It has failed spectacularly for him. The reality is that unless Trump is rendered ineligible to vote, he WILL be the Republican nominee, and he will likely lose to Biden a second time.
If he is made ineligible by the courts, then DeSantis will probably be the nominee, and he will lose to Biden even worse than Trump would. The best hope for the party would be for Trump to be made ineligible as Haley overtakes DeSantis, but this seems incredibly unlikely. The most likely scenario for this election cycle is the Democrats holding the White House, and the Republican primary is perfect evidence of this.
